Saturday 1 April 2023, 1:30 to 3:30 pm
Any replies to the organizer
- thormay@yahoo.com
Venue: Zoom online
Talking Points:
1. What does the term, '4th
Industrial Revolution' actually mean?
2. Is 4IR a dream,
a mirage, a hyped con trick, or the end of life as we know it
... or all of those things, ... or something else?
3.
What native skills will 4IR children have that the rest of us
might struggle with? The third industrial revolution brought us
into the digital age. Now most people under 30 are digital
natives. Many middle aged or older people still struggle with
computers or avoid them. (I have heard that the Presidents of
both Russia and China cannot/will not use basic programs like MS
Word or even a keyboard).
4. Socrates (died 399 BC)
famously said that literacy was a terrible thing because people
were lazy and no longer develop memory skills. More recently
calculators have resulted in many people being no longer able to
do simple arithmetic. Now ChatGPT will write letters for you and
code web pages. Will we become zombies? What jobs will
disappear? What new jobs will appear? How will schools change?
5. A key feature of 4IR is machines talking to machines,
both inside organizations and remotely to anywhere in the world.
This is a productivity multiplier. It also creates perils, not
least for businesses and the people in them. What might some of
these perils be?
6. What will be the roles and rewards
for genuinely creative people in the 4th Industrial Revolution?
Creative people in every field have generally lived very
insecure lives. A few of them make huge incomes. Most creative
people have earned far less than regular professionals, managers
and workers - who are really parasites on the creatives.
7. Digital twinning is the reconstruction of some known
object(s) in digital form. For example, it is being used in
medical research to explore treatments etc, e.g. with digital
hearts, livers etc. You can build a digital bridge or airplane
with all the known properties of the real thing. What are other
uses you can envisage for digital twinning? What advantages and
limitations might it have? How might it change our world?
8. 3D technology, also called additive technology, had a lot
of publicity ten years ago. It has fallen out of public
attention since. 3D tech can be used to construct everything
from engine parts to houses. What are its advantages and
disadvantages? Does 3D tech have any special significance for a
mid-sized country with a limited market, such as Australia? What
is the current 3D tech scene?
9. 4IR is the next step in
humans replacing or seducing Nature's limitations to serve human
ambitions and desires. There is even research to make death
optional. Where are we going? [There is an ancient legend going
back to at least 900 BC of a sorcerer's apprentice who learns
his master's magic, but doesn't have the wisdom to control it.
This has been made into many stories, music, and films (the
latest by Disney, 2010]. What does this ancient parable tell us
about 4IR?
10. The 4th Industrial Revolution is typically
described at being about AI and Automation. However, the humans
in human societies are also changing. There are huge population
changes from falling births to mass migration. Very different
new skills are needed while whole occupations disappear. How
will this changing balance of people and machines stabilize, or
won't it?
------------------
Extra Reading
The World
If (July 6th 2019) "What if robots don’t take all the jobs - The
real danger to future prosperity could be too few robots, not
too many. An imagined scenario from 2030". The Economist @
https://www.economist.com/the-world-if/2019/07/06/what-if-robots-dont-take-all-the-jobs?cid1=cust/ednew/n/bl/n/2019/08/22n/owned/n/n/nwl/n/n/n/296844/n
[Quote: "Second, the 2020s showed that the level of employment
depends on more than just automation: it also depends on ageing
and immigration. As their populations aged, rich countries saw
their workforces shrink. Many invested more in robots as they
aged, and some let in more migrants, plugging some of the skills
gaps and boosting productivity. Countries with relatively slow
ageing and lots of robots did best. But those that underinvested
in automation, or shut themselves off from the world, were hard
hit".]
Vanessa Thorpe (19 March 2023) "‘ChatGPT said I
did not exist’: how artists and writers are fighting back
against AI." The Guardian @
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/mar/18/chatgpt-said-i-did-not-exist-how-artists-and-writers-are-fighting-back-against-ai
Jeff Pao (March 11, 2023) "Chinese industries to go
digital or die - ‘Digital China’ plan emphasizes ‘industrial
internet’ in a state-led drive for world-class competitiveness
and supply chain supremacy". Asia Times @
https://asiatimes.com/2023/03/chinese-industries-to-go-digital-or-die/
Scott Foster (March 13, 2023) "Hokkaido to become
Japan’s new silicon island
Rapidus picks northern Chitose as
site for new $37 billion state-of-the-art chip production
facility designed to challenge TSMC". Asia Times @
https://asiatimes.com/2023/03/hokkaido-to-become-japans-new-silicon-island/
Sabine Hossenfelder (11 March 2023) "I believe chatbots
understand part of what they say. Let me explain". @
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cP5zGh2fui0 . [Sabine
Hossenfelder is a physicist with a gift for explaining the
inexplicable].
Shira Ovide (December 26, 2021) "Tech
won. Now what?" The Age @
https://www.theage.com.au/business/companies/tech-won-now-what-20211224-p59k1j.html
[Quote: "Technology won. One proof of that victory is that it’s
hard to define what “technology” even is. Tech is more like a
coat of new paint on everything than a definable set of products
or industries. Health care is tech. Entertainment is tech.
Schools are tech. Money is tech. Transportation is tech. We live
through tech. ... Once, perhaps, technology felt like things
that magical tech elves invented in their workshops and handed
over for humans to adore. No more. Technology is normal, not
magic. And — like everything else in the world — it can be good
and bad. ... Technology is neither the cause of nor the solution
to all of life’s problems".]
Calla Wahlquist (20 December
2020) "The sneaky revolution: 'It's changing absolutely every
job" The Guardian @
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/dec/20/the-sneaky-revolution-its-changing-absolutely-every-job
[Quote: “This industrial revolution is a sneaky one,” says Dr
Alan Montague, a lecturer in business at RMIT. “It’s changing
absolutely every job, and we just take on new skills without
realising that we’re using new technology.” ... We are talking
over Microsoft Teams, something which, just a year ago, Montague
would not have done. But when the pandemic struck in March, use
of it and other video conferencing platforms proliferated. ...
“Before Covid-19, even though I am very capable with computers,
I wasn’t using Teams,” he says. “And now I want to use Teams all
the time.” ... The sneaky revolution, says Montague, is shown in
the things left behind. If your employees are able to complete
their work at home, and even prefer to do so, then a large
inner-city office is no longer an essential part of doing
business. Which means the cleaners who cleaned that office, the
parking attendants, the barista making coffee in the foyer, are
also no longer needed."]
Kevin Drum (November/December
2017 Issue) "You Will Lose Your Job to a Robot—and Sooner Than
You Think - Automation helped bring on the age of Trump. What
will AI bring?" Mother Jones @
http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2017/10/you-will-lose-your-job-to-a-robot-and-sooner-than-you-think/?utm_source=pocket&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=pockethits
[Quote: "The two most important problems facing the human race
right now are the need for widespread deployment of renewable
energy and figuring out how to deal with the end of work.
Everything else pales in comparison. Renewable energy already
gets plenty of attention, even if half the country still denies
that we really need it. It’s time for the end of work to start
getting the same attention."]
Zigor Aldama (25 April,
2019) "Vein-pattern recognition is the latest technology driving
China’s AI, robotics revolution - A new world order is coming,
driven by Chinese companies such as DeepBlue Technology and Yitu
Technology. Artificial intelligence, vein-pattern recognition
and computer vision are already being adopted across China".
South China Morning Post @
https://www.scmp.com/magazines/post-magazine/long-reads/article/3007619/chinese-companies-leading-ai-and-robotics?utm_source=quora&utm_medium=referral
[Quote: "it’s not only blue-collar jobs that will be lost.
Yitu is developing advanced AI medical diagnosis systems that,
the company believes, will replace doctors in many instances.
Chen adds writers to the list of endangered professionals: “They
have various levels of ability. A report or a simple composition
can be written by machines, but not a piece that requires
consciousness, innovation and inspiration.”]
Tory
Shepherd (23 March 2023) "Australian military looks to build
crucial space capabilities that will support Aukus nuclear subs
- Defence department puts out call for satellites that can talk
to each other and to the ground, are ‘scalable, rapidly
deployable and re-constitutable’". The Guardian @
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/mar/22/australian-military-looks-to-build-crucial-space-capabilities-that-will-support-aukus-nuclear-subs
Gabriel Honrada (March 24, 2023) " Australia satellite
mesh to track China’s subs and hypersonics - Planned
constellation will also provide space-based infrastructure for
AUKUS alliance AI, drone and quantum computing projects". Asia
Times @
https://asiatimes.com/2023/03/australia-satellite-mesh-to-track-chinas-subs-and-hypersonics/
Dr. Li Jiang (2 March 2023) "Survival Strategies in the
Era of AI Taught by Stanford | Stanford AIRE Director". Yutube @
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZA9K0JMrbWg
Kevin Scott (22 March 2023) "Bill Gates on AI and the rapidly
evolving future of computing". Youtube @
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bHb_eG46v2c [56
minutes]
The WAN Show (21 March 2023) " AI is Scaring
Its Own Creators". Youtube @
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gsu-rjhnekE [Thor,
comment: This is really good]
Anna Tong (March 26, 2023)
"AI company restores erotic role play after backlash from users
‘married’ to their bots". The Age @
https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/ai-company-restores-erotic-roleplay-after-backlash-from-users-married-to-their-bots-20230326-p5cvao.html
[Quote: "The company’s recent removal of adult content
devastated many users, some of whom considered themselves
“married” to their chatbot companions. .. Replika’s chatbots are
powered by generative AI, a new technology that has attracted a
frenzy of consumer and investor interest due to its ability to
foster humanlike interactions. The removal of erotic role play
and subsequent customer outcry showed how powerfully AI
technology can draw people in, and the emotional havoc that code
changes can wreak".
>> Thor, comment: Love substitutes never
cease to amaze me. Many are not sentient, or even high tech: "A
golden elm near Punt Road, South Yarra, is the most popular tree
in the City of Melbourne. Every tree was given an email address
by the city council, via the Urban Forest Visual website, to
help with maintenance, but people started sending love letters.
This beautiful tree has received the most love". The Age @
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/why-are-there-blue-squares-on-poles-youtuber-reveals-melbourne-s-secrets-20230321-p5cu07.html
]
Jonathan Barrett and Stephanie Convery (27 Mar 2023)
"Robot recruiters: can bias be banished from AI hiring? - A
third of Australian companies rely on artificial intelligence to
help them hire the right person. But studies show it’s not
always a benign intermediary". The Guardian @
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/mar/27/robot-recruiters-can-bias-be-banished-from-ai-recruitment-hiring-artificial-intelligence
Will Pavia (March 27, 2023) "You want a piece of
cheesecake? Let me just turn on the printer". The Australian @
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/the-times/you-want-a-piece-of-cheesecake-let-me-just-turn-on-the-printer/news-story/c4aae009d31d5322140ccb557b91509b?amp
[Quote: "A drawback of food printing is that you have to use
pastes. An advantage is that you can make things with
extraordinary precision. In Charlie and the Chocolate Factory,
Roald Dahl imagines a new type of television that broadcasts not
only pictures but actual chocolate bars viewers at home can
pluck from their TV set. Digital food manufacturers could offer
something similar during commercial breaks. “A QR code pops up
on the screen, it says: "Check out this’,” Blutinger said. “You
take a picture of it, send it to your machine, it prints it for
you.”]
Jyoti Narayan, Krystal Hu, Martin Coulter and
Supantha Mukherjee (March 30, 2023) "Elon Musk and others urge
AI pause, citing ‘risks to society’". The Age @
https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/elon-musk-and-others-urge-ai-pause-citing-risks-to-society-20230330-p5cwi3.html
[Quote: "Earlier this month, Microsoft-backed OpenAI unveiled
the fourth iteration of its GPT (Generative Pre-trained
Transformer) AI program, which has wowed users with its vast
range of applications, from engaging users in human-like
conversation to composing songs and summarising lengthy
documents. The letter, issued by the non-profit Future of Life
Institute and signed by more than 1000 people including Musk,
called for a pause on advanced AI development until shared
safety protocols for such designs were developed, implemented
and audited by independent experts".]