Active Thinking Topic 70 - How Random is Your Life, & Nature Itself?
November 14 2023
Any replies to the organizer
- thormay@yahoo.com
Venue: Zoom online
Recommended viewing: Bernard Beitman, M.D. (Oct 27, 2022) "What science says about coincidences" @ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aIY_4CWZi1w [ Thor, comment: useful video, though 1 hour long. Easy viewing. It avoids the woo found in many treatments of this topic. Definitions used: 'COINCIDENCE' => neutral term; an unexpected co-occurence of two events. If preceded by an adjective such as 'amazing' it ceases to be neutral but becomes a statement about the subject's mental state. 'SYNCHRONICITY' is a coincidence to which meaning is assigned (following psychologist Carl Jung) , a meaning which contributes to the spiritual welfare of the individual. 'SERENDIPITY', literally 'happy accident' is often applied to unexpected scientific discoveries (such as the discovery of penicillin in mould). Serendipity depends very much on the mind of the recipient being prepared to recognize the value of the coincidence. An unprepared person would not notice the value of such a coincidence. Synchronicity and serendipity are in the mind of one individual. 'SEREALITY' is related but public: "everybody who wanted to see it could see it". For example, "many people independently reported seeing a great blue heron" (this being a symbol of death .. ). SYMOPATHITY => feeling the pain of a loved one at a distance, without being independently informed". ]
Talking points:
1. What does it actually mean to be lucky? Has that karma touched you often?
2. Coincidence always seems a little remarkable. When does it become creepy? What is your threshold for creepiness? Examples?
3. Some people say everything is random, there are no coincidences. Some people say everything is arranged by God, there are no coincidences. Do both of these types have the same kind of mental architecture (or 'delusion')? Where are you on the spectrum of seeing life as random or predetermined?
4. Stephen Wolfram, a mathematician, has proposed that the universe itself is a vast ongoing computation. We are only equipped (he says) to see and understand a small piece of it. Those things which seem random to us are simply beyond our calculation. [Note: he is NOT proposing a controller, a god]. How much sense does this make to you? If he is correct, what consequences does it have for our actions? [see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pdPYJKqfiqc ]
5. There is something called bounded variation, which includes randomness within bounds (e.g. Every heartbeat is different, but within limits). What are some of the main boundaries that have limited your life path? Has your journey been predictable with those bounds, or pretty random? Why or why not?
6. The mantra of Silicon Valley type shooting stars (ref. Elon Musk) has been, at least publicly, to "move fast and break things". The idea here is that entirely predictable systems, organizations, countries .. always lose out in a competitive world, and at worst degenerate into failure. Systems, they say, need randomness. How do you feel about this approach? How has it worked out in practice? Is there a middle way?
7. Insurance companies bet that unpredictable events for the individual (or business) can be compensated by predictable outcomes for large numbers of individuals. Everyone might want to insure against a car crash, but most cars will not crash. Insurance companies don't often go bankrupt. Can you make this kind of risk-benefit analysis for your own life? Examples? How has it worked out? What about risk-benefit analyses for whole countries?
8. Most countries have lotteries. Most of the people (not all) who buy lottery tickets regularly come from less educated, lower income people. They even buy or devise systems supposed to "increase their luck". Overwhelmingly these people will never become financially lucky through a lottery or in any other way. What is going on here, in their minds? How is betting on, say, the stock exchange different?
9. If you stock a supermarket by putting items on shelves randomly, and changing their location every week, how will this affect your business? Yet supermarket managers do change some selected items around strategically. Why do they do this? Can this analogy be applied usefully to your personal routines? What would the personal advantage be? e.g. In a new house, I told two housemates that I always washed clothes on Monday, and asked what their routines were. They flatly refused to nominate a washing day. Why were they resistant?
10. Some historians say that history is not random: it echoes, but doesn't repeat. What are they trying to say about human events? Examples? There is also an idiom that history is written by the winners. Certainly the winners tend to endorse the mega TV historical spectaculars, which most people believe, but which might not have much to do with what really happened or why. So is it fake history which echoes in real life events? Examples?
Extra Reading & Viewing
Ellen Post (March 2018) "How Much Does Random Chance Affect Your Life?" Ellenpost blog @ https://ellenpost.wordpress.com/2018/03/22/how-much-does-random-chance-affect-your-life/
Dr Stephen Wolfram (10 Aug 2023) "ChatGPT, Natural Language and Physics". Tech Stories 101 @ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pdPYJKqfiqc [Quote: "For the first time it seems there is a path to seamlessly converting natural language to computational language. Dr Stephen Wolfram fills us in on the issues and the way forward".]
Thor May (2016) "Count Your Lucky Stars" @ http://thormay.net/unwiseideas/DiscussionTopics/Luck-mu.htm [html] OR
https://www.academia.edu/26690116/Count_your_lucky_stars [PDF] [Quote: "What part does luck play in the success of individuals, enterprises and countries? Think of examples. From politics to careers to finding the love of your life, there has never been more advice available, yet at the end of the game, some people seem to have been lucky and others not. Why is this so? Can you really do much about it?"]
Nick Earls (17 Aug 2021 ) "I went looking for ordinary coincidence in the world, but what I found was extraordinary. How many everyday wonders do we miss because we’ve blinded ourselves to the inevitability of chance?". The Guardian @
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2021/aug/17/i-went-looking-for-ordinary-coincidence-in-the-world-but-what-i-found-was-extraordinary
Paul Broks (13 Apr 2023) "Are coincidences real? The rationalist in me knows that coincidences are inevitable, mundane, meaningless. But I can’t deny there is something strange and magical in them, too". The Guardian @ https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/13/are-coincidences-real
Sehnend (Jul 17, 2023) "Unraveling Synchronicity | How Patterns In Your Life Are Not A Coincidence" @ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eq-gz36LUi4 [TM comment: Many people will find this presentation persuasive. There are many such videos, books and whole philosophies. I am not persuaded by their answers. I recognize the fascinating challenge that synchronicity/coincidence poses to daily notions of cause & effect. For many, this challenge is the starting point for a belief in gods, religion, magic, astrology, numerology, prophecy and so on. That is, we are pattern seeking creatures who insist on explanations. Magical explanations are personally & socially comforting. For most people this is enough. For a scientific mind, this is never enough. Science accepts that there are always known unknowns and unknown unknowns still to explore. That's what makes science interesting.]
David McEwen (Aug 14, 2022) "Pay Attention To "Coincidences" In Your Life - Synchronicities Explained) @ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JEJNPvvwodk
Bernard Beitman, M.D. (Oct 27, 2022) "What science says about coincidences" @ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aIY_4CWZi1w [ Thor, comment: useful video, though 1 hour long. Easy viewing. It avoids the woo found in many treatments of this topic. Definitions used: 'COINCIDENCE' => neutral term; an unexpected co-occurence of two events. If preceded by an adjective such as 'amazing' it ceases to be neutral but becomes a statement about the subject's mental state. 'SYNCHRONICITY' is a coincidence to which meaning is assigned (following psychologist Carl Jung) , a meaning which contributes to the spiritual welfare of the individual. 'SERENDIPITY', literally 'happy accident' is often applied to unexpected scientific discoveries (such as the discovery of penicillin in mould). Serendipity depends very much on the mind of the recipient being prepared to recognize the value of the coincidence. An unprepared person would not notice the value of such a coincidence. Synchronicity and serendipity are in the mind of one individual. 'SEREALITY' is related but public: "everybody who wanted to see it could see it". For example, "many people independently reported seeing a great blue heron" (this being a symbol of death .. ). SYMOPATHITY => feeling the pain of a loved one at a distance, without being independently informed". ]
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How Random is Your Life, & Nature Itself? (c) Thor May 2023