Active Thinking Topic 86 - Chaos & Interesting Times
7 & 9 July 2024
Recommended Viewing: TechCrunch (17 Sept 2013) "Mark Zuckerberg Instructs Facebook to Move Fast" Youtube @ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V6urvN_4q9I [3 minutes] Talking Points: 1. The pendulum of chaos and order is in constant tension, both in physics and in social life. At different times in their lives, some individuals are drawn to chaos, and at another stage to order. Some of course remain doggedly predictable in their lives, while others live & die in a chaotic mess. What's going on? Examples? 2. "May you live in interesting times" is usually a sort of ironic curse upon the listener ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_you_live_in_interesting_times ). Some Silicon Valley advice has the same intention turned upside down to become a positive: "Move fast and break things" (refer Mark Zuckerberg https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/3-reasons-why-you-should-move-fast-break-things-marcos-azevedo/ ). Think of some positive consequences, and some negative consequences, of chaotic change. 3. A recent media article called Russia's Vladimir Putin "an agent of chaos". What was the meaning of this? If true, what could be Putin's motive. Can you think of other examples in geopolitics either current or historical? 4. In a perfect world everything would be perfect. What could that possibly mean? Think of some opportunities to be found in the world's imperfections. 5. Sam Altman, sometime hero of Open AI (Chat GPT) first proposed the aphorism of "move fast and break things". Chat GPT, and generative AI generally, has done just that. It has not finished with the breaking part either. So what will be broken, and what will be built with generative AI? 6. Hindu theology gives a central place to Shiva, the creator and destroyer: "Shiva is also associated with Time, and in this capacity, he is both the destroyer and creator of all things. In Hinduism, the universe is thought to regenerate in cycles (every 2,160,000,000 years). Shiva destroys the universe at the end of each cycle which then allows for a new Creation". This cycle of creation and destruction, life and death, is recognized as central in all traditional societies & religions. The human goal in this kind of cosmology is harmony or balance. => Modern societies are in a vortex of accelerating change. What are the consequences if large parts of our populations lose any sense of harmony & balance? 7. The common idea of chaos is a failure of organization and control. However, in the last generation whole new branches of mathematics and physics have appeared to study Chaos Theory, Complexity Theory and Emergence. It seems that chaos always contains the seeds of order and new growth. It all depends upon random variation within boundaries. Tis idea can apply to companies and societies. What degree of random variation (chaos) is productive in the development of countries, organizations, and of individuals? 8. Which systems of government best allow for random but bounded functioning? Why are they likely to be more successful (or not!) in the long run compared to rigidly organized governments? Why? Examples? 9. Scientific research involves tightly controlled sets of procedures. Why is it, again and again, that so many discoveries and breakthroughs are a result of serendipity, happy accidents? 10. Organizations like insurance companies make a profit by claiming to take the risk out of risk. A large part of modern economic machinery is devoted to taking the risk out of risk. What actual forces of chaos are they betting against? If risk is mostly eliminated what is the price that an economy, and a society pays? Extra Reading & Viewing TechCrunch (17 Sept 2013) "Mark Zuckerberg Instructs Facebook to Move Fast" Youtube @ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V6urvN_4q9I [3 minutes] Wikipedia (2024) "May you live in interesting times" @ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_you_live_in_interesting_times [Comment: this ironic blessing is supposed to be derived from a Chinese curse, though that is apocryphal] Marcos Azevedo (January 9, 2019) " 3 Reasons Why You Should “Move Fast and Break Things”". Linkedin @ https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/3-reasons-why-you-should-move-fast-break-things-marcos-azevedo/ => Note, it was Sam Altman who originally came up with this aphorism, not Zuckerberg. Mark Cartwright (10 May 2018) "Shiva." World History Encyclopedia @ https://www.worldhistory.org/shiva/ Thor May (2016) "Count Your Lucky Stars." The Passionate Skeptic website @ http://thormay.net/unwiseideas/DiscussionTopics/Luck-mu.htm [ Quote: "What part does luck play in the success of individuals, enterprises and countries? Think of examples. From politics to careers to finding the love of your life, there has never been more advice available, yet at the end of the game, some people seem to have been lucky and others not. Why is this so? Can you really do much about it?"] Thor May (2015) " Surfing or Drowning in an Ocean of Change?" The Passionate Skeptic website @ http://thormay.net/unwiseideas/Can-Change-be-Managed.htm [Quote: "The idea of managing usually implies selective choices amongst competing futures. For changes that are known knowns to us (i.e. predictable), wise choice may sometimes be viable if there is social agreement. Where the issues are known unknowns (e.g. the economic development of 3rd World countries) we may try to insert at least some well-intentioned influence on change, but must expect many unintended consequences. Where the issues are unknown unknowns (e.g. new discoveries, or a life threatening meteor crash on a large population centre) we can at best only educate ourselves and our children to react with speed, generosity and intelligence to extreme and unexpected challenges.] BBC (April 2024) "The World In 2024 With Niall Ferguson: Crisis, Conflict And The New Axis of Evil Intelligence Squared". Intelligence Squared @ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a4t_4S1h4Zg [Quote: "In April 2024 Ferguson joined us on the Intelligence Squared stage to discuss the predicaments we are currently facing. How can the West deal with the geopolitical and ideological threats posed by what Ferguson calls the axis of ill will – Russia, China and Iran? With localised wars in Ukraine and Israel-Gaza and the threat of a crisis over Taiwan, are we sleepwalking towards a Third World War? And what are the likely consequences of the ongoing conflicts for the world economy?" ----------------- Chaos & Interesting Times (c) Thor May 2024
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